Thursday, October 16, 2014

Coalition's half-baked ISIL strategy won't work - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

Coalition's half-baked ISIL strategy won't work - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

Coalition's half-baked ISIL strategy won't work
the support of Syria's moderate opposition or boots on the ground, ISIL will
only grow stronger.
Last updated: 09 Oct 2014 09:57

Kadir Ustun is the Research
Director at the SETA Foundation at Washington, DC. He also serves as an
Assistant Editor of Insight Turkey, an academic journal published by the
SETA Foundation.

The US aerial campaign against ISIL around Kobane has
intensified in the past few days. There are reports from Kurdish sources on the
ground that the strikes are helping to
some extent. 

The US strategy, so far, has entailed strikes against ISIL positions
in Iraq to be supported by ground forces supplied by Baghdad and the Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG). While this strategy seems to have stemmed the advance of ISIL in Iraq
to a certain degree, it is proving less effective and potentially
counterproductive for the humanitarian situation in Syria.

Compared to Iraq, there is very little ground support in
Syria to back the US military aerial efforts. Training and arming the moderate
Syrian opposition to curb ISIL's advances and produce effective results will
take time. Unless it targets the regime, the coalition will not be able to
enlist the full support of the moderate opposition forces to engage ISIL on the
ground. Already, the Syrian opposition groups have criticised the strikes, as
they are not directed against the Assad regime. Even while they are willing to
fight ISIL, they want the coalition to also take on the Syrian regime. Their
position is that if Assad is not dealt a blow, the coalition's efforts to
destroy ISIL will prove to be futile and strengthen the regime instead. 

As the
US strategy involves no "boots on the ground" and intends to rely on
opposition forces for the ground operations, it can only bring them into the
fold by addressing their concerns and aligning priorities.

The rise of ISIL was borne out of the Sunni insurgency in
Iraq and the vacuum created by the Syrian civil war. The Assad regime left
ungoverned spaces for extremist groups to take hold. Civilians were forced to
bend and bow or break under their rule. 

The emerging danger shows that the
coalition has failed, thus far, to devise a political strategy to address the
plight of the millions of displaced civilians caught between the brutal Assad
regime and violent militant groups, such as ISIL.

Narrow approach

The current strategy employs a narrow counterterrorism
approach and avoids the difficult task of engineering a transition in Syria and
convincing Sunnis in Iraq to disavow ISIL. For the air strikes to succeed, they
need to be supported by the Syrian opposition and Turkey - both have promised
to put boots on the ground if the Assad regime is targeted.

Although the US has attacked ISIL positions, the campaign
needs to be far more robust and sweeping beyond air strikes. If not, ISIL
will survive, reorganise, increase its internal cohesion, and expand its
external appeal.

Fighting rages for Syria's Kobane

ISIL has moved against the more vulnerable region of Kobane
in Syria, as it accurately realised that the US was more concerned with ISIL's
presence in Iraq. The western powers, such as the UK and France, said they
would only conduct operations in Iraq for
the time being, which encourages ISIL to extend its reach into Syria.

This approach indicates a lack of commitment to countering
ISIL in Syria and encourages ISIL to focus its operations there. The
coalition's half-measured aerial military attacks not supported by ground
forces will fall woefully short of the intended goal to "degrade and
destroy ISIL".

In a matter of days, ISIL's advance towards Kobane resulted
in the flow of close to 180,000 Kurdish refugees into
. Kurdish civilians have had to either flee the town, become
refugees in Turkey or risk getting caught up in the middle of a
street-to-street battle between the Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed wing
People's Protection Units (YPG) and ISIL.

Pressure on civilians

Since the beginning of the civil war, the international
community has failed to protect civilian populations in Syria - Kobane is only
the latest example. Establishment of a safe zone by the coalition forces can
stem the influx of refugees and protect civilians. While ISIL's advances need
to be rolled back militarily, the pressure on civilians has to be addressed.

Otherwise, ISIL will find more breeding ground among civilian populations who
feel desperate and abandoned by the international community. Part of ISIL's
success has depended on its ability to take advantage of the plight of
civilians. If the strikes are not combined with a comprehensive plan to address
this fact, they will inadvertently help ISIL.

The PYD has promoted itself as the protector of Kurdish
civilians but their demands for autonomy in Syria and "de facto alliance" with the
Assad regime
has earned them distrust among the Syrian opposition
and in Turkey. The PYD has recently signalled that they might drop their
opposition to the safe zone idea and finally agree to the establishment of a
safe zone if it is done by an international coalition. If the US agrees to
broaden the mission, 

Turkey will be willing to be part of a coalition effort to
protect civilians by creating a safe zone and a no fly zone. In the absence of
such a commitment, Turkey's posture will remain defensive, in which case the US
strikes will achieve very little in the way of protecting civilians.

The current US strategy restricts itself to counterterrorism
measures, and thus fails to address the Sunni insurgency in Iraq and the civil
war in Syria, which facilitated ISIL's rise in the first place. It also seems
to ignore the degree to which the Assad regime fuelled the rise of ISIL to
prove that the regime was in a fight against terrorists.

ISIL has been instrumental to the success of the divide and
rule tactics of the Assad regime against the moderate opposition. Air strikes
alone are not enough to stop ISIL and they will likely create more refugees and
produce civilian casualties

If the
US bombs and walks away instead of committing to a broader longer term strategy
of political transition in Syria, the conditions that strengthen ISIL will not
change. In that case, the Syrian humanitarian crisis will only deepen and
devolve into catastrophe. :


All this time I was reading, watching and sometime commenting on short posts,
I found all on a sudden it seemed someone threw all the accumulated problems on
the shoulders of the lone super power to solve.

Over and above those garbage, there were people those who created the
problems. Now they pretend as if the International Community of Nations is bloody
idiots and fools not to know who all decided to create the ISIS/ISIL and which
country was entrusted with the job to give a physical shape to the brain child
of UK, French, Israel, Egypt, and one more Muslim country.

The country entrusted to create "Frankenstein i.e ISIS/ISIL"
Israel PM a criminal Professional assassin ordered its Intelligence
Organization MOSSAD to created a replica Frankenstein and it did with the evil
motive named it with the name and style of Muslim ISIS.

Now, when the Frankenstein started to kill people irrespective of race
religion and country UK, French started to deliver fiery speech involving
Muslim as the devil, because Israel named the Frankenstein with the name and
style of Muslim.

This Israel did to defame the religion Islam. In addition, to hide the
devilish work of the Old sea pirate's dynastic activities and that now being within
the group of civilization and to show fake humanity as is Her Excellency's UK
PM. The  French government and the mighty
Zionist Terrorists best friends and most trusted genocide criminals Israel's PM
Netanyhau, from the knowledge International Community of Nations about this
conspiratorial project.

My friends, see the activities  of our
so called criminal political leaders and that too those on whom we trust more
the super powers.

Are they worth believing with the world affairs of the welfare of the World Community
of Nations? NO! They are Cheats, Frauds and traitors.

Please read the article, I have gone through it and the author has
enumerated the latest event in eloquent language for better understanding.

addition, add the above to information to view how the criminals to solve the
problems befriend the Lone Super power in time of need

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