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Trump’s North Korea Bluster Has Shattered U.S. Standing As Global Leader
The more stridently Trump says he is going to stop North Korea, the
worse it looks when he fails, and the more Beijing stands to gain.
08/16/2017 03:59 pm ET
CANBERRA, Australia — Rivalry between great powers is plainly
escalating in many parts of the world. When that happens, specific local
issues often take on a much broader significance. And so it is with the
present tension over North Korea’s nuclear program.
The issues are very serious in their own right, but they become even
more important because they play into the wider contest between China
and the United States over their future roles in Asia. Will the
U.S. remain Asia’s leading power and the arbiter of regional order? Or
will China take its place?
Clearly, America’s standing as regional leader would be dramatically
reaffirmed if U.S. President Donald Trump could convince or compel
North Korea to abandon its nuclear program and stop threatening America
and its allies. But just as clearly, U.S. standing would be weakened if
Trump fails. In the zero-sum logic of major power rivalry, that would be
a win for China. Moreover, the more stridently Trump says he is going
to stop North Korea, the worse it looks when he fails, and the more
Beijing stands to gain.
That is especially true when he threatens to use armed force.
Although wars between great powers have been mercifully rare in recent
decades, their perceived ability and willingness to use force remains
central to their power and influence.
A country’s broader standing is seriously undermined when it threatens to use force and then backs down.
Such is the strange and seemingly immutable pattern of power
politics. It explains why great powers, including America, spend so much
money on armed forces even when they face few, if any, direct threats
to their own security. It explains why a country’s broader standing is
so seriously undermined when it threatens to use force and then backs
down.
And it explains why Trump’s recent wild talk about war has been so
damaging to America’s international leadership. His threats to use force
to stop North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile program will
prove empty because his only military options could escalate into the
biggest conflict since 1945.
So America will not just end up living with an ICBM-armed North
Korea. It will find its leadership in Asia sharply diminished in the
eyes of both its allies and its rivals.
Look at the allies first. Countries like Japan and South Korea
depend on America for their security because they are confident that
America will fulfill its promises to go to war to protect them if
necessary. In return, their support is essential to America’s
international leadership. But their support falters when their
confidence is undermined by America failing to use force when it says it
will.
America’s rivals will now be emboldened to challenge U.S. leadership more blatantly.
This is a particular problem for America’s Asian allies today
because their confidence in U.S. resolve is already weakened. The closer
North Korea gets to having the capacity to attack U.S. cities using
nuclear weapons, the less confident those Asian allies can be that the
U.S. will be willing to shield them from North Korean threats. And the
richer and more powerful China becomes, the more it will cost America to
stand up to China on its allies’ behalf and the less confident they can
be that America will be willing to accept that cost.
To some extent, such uncertainties are part of the normal stuff of
alliance management, but they have become much more acute in recent
years. Back in the Cold War, few doubted America’s resolve because the
Soviets so obviously posed a true existential threat to U.S. security,
and U.S. leaders were very careful to uphold the credibility of their
undertakings.
After the Cold War, the U.S. seemed to face no serious rivals, so
the question did not arise. Only recently have serious doubts about U.S.
resolve really appeared. Now, under Trump, they are growing fast.
America’s rivals will also draw important conclusions from what
Trump has said. They will be reassured that, whatever its leaders might
say, America lacks the resolve to use armed force to protect its
position as a global and regional leader. They will therefore be
emboldened to challenge U.S. leadership more blatantly.
If, one day, the U.S. threatens to use force and really means it,
China could underestimate its resolve and push ahead, sparking a war
that both would rather avoid – 1914 redux.
In Asia, America will find it harder to deter China’s assertiveness
in the South China Sea, which is deliberately intended to display
China’s growing ability to defy U.S. power in the maritime domain, where
it was once strongest. And it increases the risk that if, one day,
Trump or his successor threatens to use force and really means it,
Beijing will underestimate U.S. resolve and push ahead, sparking a war
that both would rather avoid — 1914 redux.
It is easy to see then why national leaders — especially leaders of
great powers — have always been so exceptionally careful about
threatening the use of force. Of course, everyone can make an occasional
slip. Even former U.S. President Barack Obama, normally a model of
caution, went too far in setting a red line around Syria’s use of
chemical weapons; America’s credibility took a serious hit when that red
line was crossed, and the U.S. did nothing.
But Trump is different. Never before have we seen the leader of a
great power speak so loosely about this most important subject. He seems
quite unaware of the consequences for America’s credibility and
international standing. Indeed, he hardly seems to understand that he
speaks for America at all. With Trump, everything is personal.
America’s role as the upholder of order will now further dwindle, and the world will become a more dangerous place.
So where will this lead? Alas, the answers are all too clear. Most
likely, prudent allies will rely less and less on the U.S. Ambitious
rivals will push harder and harder to erode U.S. leadership and assert
their own. America’s role as the upholder of order in key regions of the
world will dwindle, and the world will become a more dangerous place.
Alternatively, miscalculations on all sides may create a situation
where Trump’s irresponsibility slides from talk to action, and America
finds itself in a major war it need not fight and cannot win.
EARLIER ON WORLDPOST:
COMMENT:
Having gone through the article I found the article had
been written with very care and cautious words and sentences and
meticulously befitting to the subject under consideration and
deliberation.
The person responsible for such an upheaval of the
reputation, and smearing of the status of the gobal leader is none but
the present President of US.
Got a shock effect isn’t it my respected readers? Well ,
think how sensational and grave the matter could be, that the person who
is responsible to uphold the high reputation of the excellent image of
the country and its able leadership took only hundred day’s to smash all
the image and reputation built with arduous hard work shading sweats and blood every second for centuriesh.
He just send them rolling down the gutter water washing down the streets of the world of every country. The person without an iota of
shame and loyalty in him and to the country respectively shouts at the top of his voice that he is the best President of US and whatever he is doing is to build America Great.
It is known and believed that for any man’s success and
greatness always the hands of a women is there. Alas! What to say about
the women take into consideration the entire family of the man
as well as the women and you would get to the bottom of the story of the
reasons of all these doings. The main reason is the blood that e runs
in his body is not the blood of American’s but the NAZIS’S blood.
When his father migrated to US on the way he got in to
the womb or before and was born later . Bad blood gives birth to bad
output. His heart and soul friends are all criminals including the
Russian President PUTIN and white house colleague BANNON the people who
recruited him and supported by the Zionist terrorists lawmakers of Republican Party the
speaker, senate leader, the ex GOP chairman and many others including the
sitting PM of Israel.
Now, to come to te blasting point is why PUTIN did this to meddle in the presidential election 2016. He did this to take revenge, for US led
sanctions were imposed on Russia. This man on behalf served two purposes one to take revenge of imposing sanctions and the other for dismantling soviet
Russia to simple Russia and in the process PUTIN implemented the version
of e Russian late Leader that Russia would not attack US but would
humiliate US and teach the American Nation a life time lesson by it own citizen in front of
the International Community of Nations wich he could not accomplish it as it was detected by the US government and is taking action..
However, having narrated the Story in length let me draw the
conclusion that doing such heinous crime of treachery involving the
citizens of US PUTIN and all those committed the crime of treachery with
US will face the punishment today , tomorrow or day after,
“PUTIN REMEMBER SIN PARDONS NONE, NOT EVEN ITS FATHER IT FOLLOWS HIM TO HIS GRAVE. TIME WILL PROVE THE STATEMENT MADE TODAY“
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